Rates desk
US Treasury yield curve
10-year
4.72%
2-year
4.25%
3-month
3.89%
10Y − 2Y
+0.47
10Y − 3M
+0.83
Curve
Upward
Curve shape
Flat. Long and short yields sit close together.- Today — 10 Aug 2026
- One month ago — 10 Jul 2026
- One year ago — 11 Aug 2025
10Y − 2Y spread
Past year, percentage pointsBelow the dashed line the curve is inverted: two-year money costs more than ten-year money. Our arithmetic on the two published series.
Every maturity
Change against a day, a week, a month and a year ago| Maturity | Yield | 1 day |
|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3.79% | 0.00 |
| 2M | 3.84% | +0.01 |
| 3M | 3.89% | +0.02 |
| 4M | 3.91% | +0.02 |
| 6M | 4.00% | +0.04 |
| 1Y | 4.04% | +0.03 |
| 2Y | 4.25% | +0.06 |
| 3Y | 4.31% | +0.06 |
| 5Y | 4.41% | +0.06 |
| 7Y | 4.56% | +0.07 |
| 10Y | 4.72% | +0.07 |
| 20Y | 5.25% | +0.05 |
| 30Y | 5.25% | +0.06 |
Where the curve has been
Selected maturities, past year3M
3.89%-0.45 in a year
2Y
4.25%+0.49 in a year
10Y
4.72%+0.45 in a year
30Y
5.25%+0.41 in a year
The same measure elsewhere
Ten-year less short-datedTen-year yield less the shortest maturity each issuer publishes. Negative means inverted. Full curves for every market
Reading the shape
A yield curve plots what a borrower pays across different lengths of time. Normally lending for longer earns more, so the line slopes upward.
10Y − 2Y turns negative when markets expect rate cuts, which usually means they expect the economy to weaken.
10Y − 3M compares the ten-year with the three-month bill. Federal Reserve research has generally favoured this version as a recession indicator.
An inversion is a signal about expectations, not a forecast with a date attached. Historically the gap between inversion and recession has ranged from several months to over two years, and not every inversion has been followed by one.