Rates desk
US Treasury yield curve
10-year
5.18%
2-year
4.87%
3-month
4.24%
10Y − 2Y
+0.31
10Y − 3M
+0.94
Curve
Upward
Curve shape
Flat. Long and short yields sit close together.- Today — 24 Sept 2026
- One month ago — 26 Aug 2026
- One year ago — 25 Sept 2025
10Y − 2Y spread
Past year, percentage pointsBelow the dashed line the curve is inverted: two-year money costs more than ten-year money. Our arithmetic on the two published series.
Every maturity
Change against a day, a week, a month and a year ago| Maturity | Yield | 1 day |
|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.01% | +0.02 |
| 2M | 4.18% | +0.08 |
| 3M | 4.24% | +0.05 |
| 4M | 4.33% | +0.03 |
| 6M | 4.34% | +0.03 |
| 1Y | 4.51% | +0.02 |
| 2Y | 4.87% | +0.02 |
| 3Y | 4.99% | +0.02 |
| 5Y | 5.03% | +0.04 |
| 7Y | 5.10% | +0.05 |
| 10Y | 5.18% | +0.07 |
| 20Y | 5.53% | +0.08 |
| 30Y | 5.47% | +0.07 |
Where the curve has been
Selected maturities, past year3M
4.24%+0.20 in a year
2Y
4.87%+1.23 in a year
10Y
5.18%+1.00 in a year
30Y
5.47%+0.72 in a year
The same measure elsewhere
Ten-year less short-datedTen-year yield less the shortest maturity each issuer publishes. Negative means inverted. Full curves for every market
Reading the shape
A yield curve plots what a borrower pays across different lengths of time. Normally lending for longer earns more, so the line slopes upward.
10Y − 2Y turns negative when markets expect rate cuts, which usually means they expect the economy to weaken.
10Y − 3M compares the ten-year with the three-month bill. Federal Reserve research has generally favoured this version as a recession indicator.
An inversion is a signal about expectations, not a forecast with a date attached. Historically the gap between inversion and recession has ranged from several months to over two years, and not every inversion has been followed by one.